The issue of Scottish independence seemed to be at the forefront of politics in the 2010s – the SNP dominated Scottish government and calls for an independent Scotland flooded the mainstream media. However in recent times the independence movement has seemingly lost its steam, with a vote to remain in the UK in 2014 and the SNP’s loss of key Scottish constituencies in the 2024 general election. Yet, the question still remains – would independence be beneficial to Scotland and is it still viable in 2025?
In 2007 SNP were in their prime, winning 47 seats, and in 2011 were able to form the first majority government in the history of Scottish Parliament. It seemed as if independence was just a step away, with a nationalist party at the forefront of Scottish politics. Opinion polls in 2013 suggested the public were clearly in favour of independence, yet in 2014 55% voted against leaving the UK. In 2024, the SNP’s fortunes seemed to change – perhaps signalling a decline in public favour towards independence. Blighted by scandal and financial controversy, the SNP saw a significant loss in popularity – losing 39 seats. The loss of SNP’s supremacy in Scotland puts into question whether independence is politically viable in 2025, with nationalist parties having little power in Holyrood, let alone Westminster. In 2024, it seemed as if preventing another 5 years of Tory austerity was stronger than the demand for independence, and the SNP saw the effects of this. It is hard to determine whether independence is still at the forefront of Scotland’s political agenda, but it seems as if the initial buzz of an independent Scotland has begun to wear off. With a growing cost of living crisis, it seems as if independence is no longer a pressing issue for the electorate, who hope to find assistance in a new Westminster government.
On the contrary, the vast political differences between Scotland and England suggest independence is inevitable. There has often been clashes between Scotland and the rest of the UK when it has come to how they want to be governed, particularly Brexit. In 2016, Scotland held a strong remain stance in the referendum, with 62% of the Scottish electorate voting to remain in the EU compared to 46.6% of England. The results of the Brexit referendum has increased support for independence in Scotland, with resentment towards rule from Westminster. In 2019, SNP ran on a promise of delivering a second Brexit referendum and independence referendum, winning 48 seats. The results clearly showed the anger of the Scottish electorate, they wanted change and they were tired of English dominance. It is easy to understand the anger that came from the Brexit referendum – why should Scotland have to be part of a decision they didn’t vote for? The democratic properties of an independent Scotland seemed a promising property to the Scottish electorate, who were tired of their voices being forgotten. It is inevitable that there will be further clashes between Scottish and English political ideologies in the coming years, with mounting pressure on Westminster to find a solution to the divisive question of immigration, will growing divisions allow Scottish independence make a democratic comeback?
One of the most prominent questions in an argument for Scottish independence is whether an independent Scotland could thrive economically without the backing of the British government and economy. Since devolution was implemented in 1999, the Scottish government has seen a steady increase in funding from Westminster, receiving £41 billion a year between 2022 and 2025. A loss of so much funding would leave Scotland in a vulnerable position, with services unable to maintain a stable budget to function effectively. Whilst this would be a significant loss to the Scottish economy, removing additional funding for Scotland would allow England to receive more funding for national services and significantly improve social care. Despite being the most populated nation in the UK, England receives the least funding out of the 4 nations – with public spending per person in England in 2023/24 estimating at £12,598 compared to £14,759 in Scotland. While this loss of funding from Westminster would be devastating for Scotland, it could allow England to thrive with a higher budget to manage services, like the NHS. Therefore, an independent Scotland could be economically beneficial for England as a nation yet leaving Scotland without key funding.
Without the financial backing of Westminster, Scotland would have to find other sources of money to maintain its economy. Independence activists have often cited Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas revenues as substantial sources of income to hold up the economy, with it generating nearly £9.4 billion for the Scottish economy in 2022/23. Despite large revenues, reliance on North Sea oil and gas for economic stability would be a risky move for Scotland – with profits unstable and hard to predict. In 2014, there came a drop in the price of oil causing revenues to drop from £7 billion to just £500 million a year. An unprecedented drop in revenues could’ve been climatic for the Scottish economy if they did not have backing from Westminster and the rest of the UK – something that hadn’t gone ignored when the public voted in the independence referendum later in the year. Therefore, if Scotland were to become an independent nation they would have to seek out new sources of revenue rather than heavily relying on North Sea oil and gas which fails to provide Scotland with a safe and long-term source of income.
In conclusion, an independent Scotland wouldn’t come without its fair share of challenges, with the risk of political and economic instability in return for a free and democratic Scotland. It is hard to conclude whether independence is still on the cards, with the movement having seemingly lost steam in the 2024 general election, but as we see further clashes between the political priorities of Scotland and England, is there a chance that the movement may reignite? With Westminster heavily focussing on the battle against Reform and the debate on immigration, may Scotland take the opportunity to try and refocus the narrative on independence and their issues?
